No country can exist for long without a means for its people to make a living. While systems that preclude the production of wealth have been attempted they have all failed due to a simple truth: people wish to improve their situation in life and the ability to earn a living remains the most effective way to do this. So what economic opportunities present in the settlement's early years can be reasonably speculated on? A caveat first: the Antarctic year is heavily bifurcated into summer and winter seasons with economic activities doable in one nearly impossible in the other. This is, if not unique, very rare and requires special mention. The economy will shift between a season where wide-ranging, travel-related jobs are possible and one where they are not. How settlers would approach this reality is an interesting discussion with several options to consider. Do workers have separate summer and winter jobs? Do they have one job that reserves specific aspects of work for the most appropriate season? Do workers take one of the seasons off each year? Likely, a mixture of the above economic situations will occur resulting in a largely outward-focused summer work season and a more inward-focused winter work season at the settlement. MiningThe potential for mining is still an open question. Only about 1% of Antarctica is ice-free which makes the simple act of prospecting difficult. That said, there are two types of 'mining' that are feasible right now: meteorite mining and guano harvesting. Meteorite Mining Antarctica is unique in that its vast ice sheets work to collect and concentrate meteorite falls. As such it is the premier spot for finding meteorites. These meteorites have a decent value per gram as the chart below shows: Next, it is a matter of finding out how many meteorites there are per square kilometer (on average). The answer is about 6.3 meteorites. There are also 'blue ice regions' that have upwards of 100+ meteorites/km2 (see reference link below for a map of these areas around Cape Adare). This works out to $403-787 per square kilometer on average assuming the most common type of meteorite. A 15km2 hunt should yield $5760-11,250 (stony) + $3200-6250 (iron). Exceptionally rare meteorites are left out of these calculations but should yield higher returns over longer periods. But how long does it take to mine a square kilometer? Based on an expedition carried out in 2019 we can get a rough estimate. Katherine Joy spent 1 month searching for meteorites in an area which does not appear to be a blue ice region. She collected 36 meteorites (all stony). Based on the average distribution of meteorites this is about 5.7km2 of area covered. Using average size and type this would be a haul worth $2304+. Divided by the four weeks she searched for meteorites this is a gross profit of $576 per week. Her account does not include how many hours she worked each day but I'm going to assume 40 hours/day to take into account inclement weather. This gives an hourly wage of $14.40 (only finding the least valuable meteorite). This is about $3 more than the average wage in the USA. Rare finds quickly increase these numbers exponentially so these calculations should be considered a base level of earnings. Recently, the process of finding these meteorites became much easier with the development of an A.I. that can better pinpoint their locations. While meteorite mining itself is confined to the summer months the actually process of grading, preparing, and pricing the meteorites could well fill the winter months as the above estimate would leave the miner with ~180 meteorites to prep for sale. It should also be noted that iron meteorites would be a source of both iron and nickle (along with traces of other heavy metals) and depending on the situation may be smelted down rather than sold as-is. Blue Ice Region Map (Cape Adare): [1] Guano Harvesting Guano (bird poop) is useful as a fertilizer. Most modern fertilizers are chemical-based so the need for guano has been greatly reduced from its heights in the 1800s. However, the settlement needs fertilizer for its green houses without having to rely on imports. This means collecting guano would be a needed part of the settlement's internal economy. This is fine, not everything in the economy needs to be focused towards exports. It is impossible to predict the supply and demand at play here but this probably falls into a part-time job category of some kind (at least in the settlement's early days). Much like meteorite mining this job would be largely confined to the summer months. Electricity GenerationAnother business focused on the domestic market would be the generation of electrical power. While in the early days everyone is likely to have their own solar panels and/or wind turbines. But as the economy moves towards specialization of roles there is a very real possibility that a company would be created for supplying the settlement's energy needs. This is the first job we are discussing that could be all-season. The need for electricity is near-constant after all. FarmingFarming using greenhouses would be a major employer both for Crown-owned farms and private operations. Subsistence farming would occupy the settlement's early years but as greenhouses are expanded a small surplus may develop. The actual cost to produce means pursuing farming on a commercial basis is probably not viable early on. Rather, small surpluses may be sold/traded on an ad hoc basis. Crops that are used to create non-perishable products, such as spices, could be sold as they can be stored for long periods. The abundance of refrigeration does mean that food can be kept frozen indefinitely at no cost. This opens up an interesting possibility of supplying research stations with a variety of foodstuffs as a business. This is the second job we are discussing that could be all-season. Indeed, as summer workers finish up the season they could move seamlessly into farming in the green houses. Tourist AccommodationIt might be shocking to learn that Antarctica is lacking in amenities. As a result cruises (which are becoming ever more common) may spend only a few hours on shore as if the weather were to change those on shore would be in danger. The settlement would make longer stays possible as well as the opportunity to travel further inland. Below are some specific ideas along these lines. Hotels/B&Bs/Hostels On shore amenities gives cruise lines additional options. They could drop off tourists who want to explore Antarctica by land rather than gaze at it from out at sea. The cruise could either pick these tourists up with a secondary ship, by plane, or double back after the cruise concludes. While unlikely to occur, tourists might opt to spend the winter in Antarctica (although this probably should be discouraged). All of which means that offering a place to sleep would be a viable option for a business. This doesn't only apply to tourists, researchers would find these kinds of accommodations useful. Sure, they probably won't like the idea that a settlement has been set up on a continent that is supposed to be wholly set aside for science but at the same time it would extend the time they can spend in the field. The Cape Adare candidate settlement site is a good example. The weather can change quickly at the Cape which means a lack of shelter greatly limits how long researchers can remain there. Accommodations would allow them to stay, perhaps the entire season. The settlement may in time come to host researchers on a regular basis as they go about studying the region. Hosting tourists is primarily a summer job but if researchers begin making use of the settlement during the winter months a hotel owner could keep busy the entire year. Inland Day Trips The options for seeing the interior of Antarctica as a tourist are limited with only one operator flying people in for a camping experience. Day trips around Cape Adare would be doable and provide a unique experience. As with any idea involving tourism this would be a summer only job. Tourist Knick-knacks 'I went to Antarctica and all I got was this lousy t-shirt' - While giftshops on Antarctica might seem just a little sacrilegious it is a fact that this would be the easiest way to pull in extra tourism dollars. Aside from the giftshop itself a number of other jobs would be created focused on stocking it with product. This is the classic example of a job that could have two different phases of operation. During the winter the giftshop would be focused on making/buying the products it will sell during the following summer tourism season. The FutureIt is impossible to determine how the settlement's economy would develop over time. Some business ideas
require developed infrastructure. For example, server farms (with or without cryptocurrency mining) require internet cables to be laid. Indeed, internet access would open up an astounding number of business opportunities. Others, such as fishing, require specialized equipment. But the fact remains, as I hope I have demonstrated here, that Antarctica provides enough economic opportunities to sustain itself.
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Published ResearchAs the project develops and gaps in understanding are filled finalized plans will be posted here. The end goal being a comprehensive plan for settling Antarctica. All plans subject to update as new information is learned. Archives
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